As the government shutdown stretches into its second week, the dairy industry continues to operate without access to key data. To this point, the main information gaps for the dairy sector include numbers for trade and dairy product output. However, if the shutdown persists, upcoming reports on milk production and inventories will also be missed, further obfuscating stakeholders’ understanding of market drivers. 

The dairy markets continue to lean bearish, as milk output grows around the world. But that doesn’t mean that prices must move downward constantly. After several weeks of steep declines, the dairy markets regained a little ground this week. On LaSalle Street, traders describe this as a healthy correction in a bear market. 

Milk is absolutely gushing out of the U.S. dairy industry. Milk production reached 19.52 billion pounds in August, up 3.2% from a year ago. USDA revised its estimate of July milk output and cow numbers upward significantly. The agency now reports that dairy producers added 35,000 cows in July and another 10,000 head in August. That put the August milk-cow herd at 9.52 million head, larger than at any time since late 1993 and up 176,000 head from a year ago.

Following last week’s dramatic downward movement, the dairy markets tried to regain some traction this week. Yet, despite a few flashes of stronger prices, the market tone remains overwhelmingly bearish as participants come to terms with the scope of the increase in global milk supplies.

There were no bulls to be found on LaSalle Street this week. The bears roamed freely, showing no fear of an overcorrection even as parts of the dairy complex scored multi-year lows. Red ink poured into the cheese and milk powder trade and deluged the butter market. CME spot butter plummeted to $1.86 per pound, down 16.25ȼ in just five trading sessions. Spot butter is down more than 40% from the mid-summer high, languishing at its lowest level since October 2021, nearly four y