As the government shutdown stretches into its second week, the dairy industry continues to operate without access to key data. To this point, the main information gaps for the dairy sector include numbers for trade and dairy product output. However, if the shutdown persists, upcoming reports on milk production and inventories will also be missed, further obfuscating stakeholders’ understanding of market drivers. 

The dairy markets continue to lean bearish, as milk output grows around the world. But that doesn’t mean that prices must move downward constantly. After several weeks of steep declines, the dairy markets regained a little ground this week. On LaSalle Street, traders describe this as a healthy correction in a bear market. 

A meeting of the Producer Review Board (PRB) was held on Monday, September 22, 2025, at the Clubhouse at Cal Expo in Sacramento. In a nice touch, the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) provided water, donuts, and fruit. The meeting started at about 10:15 a.m. Since the last meeting on May 5, 2025, the PRB has lost five members and picked up two. Four of the five resigned: John Moons, Jim Vieira, Arlin Van Groningan, and Jarrid Bordessa. Kerry Vander Poel mov

Milk is absolutely gushing out of the U.S. dairy industry. Milk production reached 19.52 billion pounds in August, up 3.2% from a year ago. USDA revised its estimate of July milk output and cow numbers upward significantly. The agency now reports that dairy producers added 35,000 cows in July and another 10,000 head in August. That put the August milk-cow herd at 9.52 million head, larger than at any time since late 1993 and up 176,000 head from a year ago.

Following last week’s dramatic downward movement, the dairy markets tried to regain some traction this week. Yet, despite a few flashes of stronger prices, the market tone remains overwhelmingly bearish as participants come to terms with the scope of the increase in global milk supplies.

There were no bulls to be found on LaSalle Street this week. The bears roamed freely, showing no fear of an overcorrection even as parts of the dairy complex scored multi-year lows. Red ink poured into the cheese and milk powder trade and deluged the butter market. CME spot butter plummeted to $1.86 per pound, down 16.25ȼ in just five trading sessions. Spot butter is down more than 40% from the mid-summer high, languishing at its lowest level since October 2021, nearly four y

On September 17, 2025, the State Water Resources Control Board will consider placing the Kern Subbasin on Probation. Last February, the State Board considered this issue and decided there was enough progress being made to give the Kern GSAs a little more time. They set a date of September 17 to reconsider the issue.

The selloff continued on LaSalle Street this week. Robust production of high-component milk is keeping churns and vats full and weighing on dairy product prices. After the close today, USDA detailed how processors are divvying up the growing milk supply with its monthly update to the Dairy Products report.

The butter market melted down. CME spot butter plummeted 19ȼ this week to $2.045 per pound, its lowest price in nearly four years. Last week’s Cold Storage report showed that inventories were not burdensome as of July 31. But more recent commentary from USDA’s Dairy Market News suggests that stocks are starting to pile up. U.S. butter is the cheapest in the world – by far – and exports remain strong. But America’s dairy cows are simply cranking out too much high-fat milk, esp

The dairy markets have lost that summer sizzle. Prices plummeted this week on the heels of a Milk Production report that confirmed heady growth. Unseasonably cool overnight temperatures and another 10,000 cows pushed milk output upward in July. Production totaled 19.57 billion pounds, up 3.5% from July 2024. Once again, components supercharged the growth. The U.S. dairy herd made 4.7% more butterfat, 4.4% more protein, and 3.8% more nonfat solids than it did last July. 

The backpacks are ready, the bus schedules are finalized, and milk bottlers are ramping up output. It’s back-to-school season in much of the country. But it’s still hot, and milk output is slipping. USDA’s Dairy Market News says milk is tight in the East. In the Central and West regions, output is declining seasonally, but there is more milk than there was a year ago. Cream production is slipping across the nation, but, as ice cream manufacturers wind down, there is plenty of

For the month of August, there has been a lot going on in California water. My job for Milk Producers Council is to be the dairy industry’s eyes, ears, and advocate on water supply. I participated in a number of meetings this past week and I thought I would share a bit of what I learned.   Subsidence has been a problem in California ever since we began using large capacity wells to do irrigation. The DWR document describes the...

As summer moves into the home stretch, the spot market for milk is tightening up. The typical seasonal decline in milk production has combined with hot and sticky summer weather in some areas to push down on output. At the same time, bottlers are preparing for the start of the school year and have begun to increase their demand, further reducing milk availability for manufacturers. As a result, processors in the Upper Midwest this week paid a...

The dairy markets are showcasing the colorful – and somewhat morbid – Wall Street adage: “Even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height.” This week milk futures managed a modest recovery, briefly interrupting the dramatic downtrend. Most Class III futures contracts added just a few cents, but the September contract rallied 21ȼ to $17.73 per cwt. Most Class IV futures climbed roughly a nickel. The September contract closed at $19.10.

The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) recently released a document on subsidence and how to stop it. When groundwater is pumped, particularly from wells deep underground, the ground above can sink, as the clays between the aquifer and the ground surface compress. This phenomenon of the ground surface sinking is called subsidence.   Subsidence has been a problem in California ever since we began using large capacity wells to do irrigation. The DWR document descr

The State Water Resources Control Board has significant control and authority over how water flows through the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The Delta is essentially the valve through which Northern California surface water passes through on its way to the ocean. A limited amount of that flow is diverted to the aqueducts for use in the Central Valley, Southern California and the Bay Area. For a number of years, the State Water Board has been in the process of updating t

U.S. dairy producers are keeping cows in their barns rather than sending them to the slaughterhouse. Through mid-July, dairy producers culled 1.38 million milk cows. That’s 310,000 fewer than the 2020 through 2023 average, and it marks the lowest mid-July slaughter since 2008, when depressed cull rates fostered rapid – and ultimately unsustainable – expansion. Heifers are still in short supply. This afternoon, USDA estimated there were 3.5 million dairy heifers on July 1, ste

The dairy markets have lost that summer sizzle. It’s still hot in the Northeast and in states along the West Coast. Milk production is much lower than it was during the spring flush, just as it always is in mid-July. Components have dropped. But in the center of the country, cows are enjoying cool nights and recovering from the sweltering conditions that prevailed a couple weeks ago. Milk yields are bouncing back in the Midwest. Cheesemakers in the region found a few loads of

Trade topics continue to dominate the headlines as the 90-day pause on the ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs came and went this week. While the situation remains fluid, the administration appears to have extended the overall reciprocal tariff pause until August 1, while sending a series of letters to specific countries threatening elevated tariff rates. Many of the countries that received tariff letters are key destinations for U.S. dairy exports, casting further doubt over U.S. dairy

Tucked away in the Big Beautiful Bill is a billion dollars of grant money to pay for “construction and associated activities that restore or increase the capacity or use of existing conveyance facilities constructed by the Bureau of Reclamation or for construction and associated activities that increase the capacity of existing Bureau of Reclamation surface water storage facilities. The loss in water was split almost equally between the federal Central Valley Project and the