The Producer Review Board (PRB) held a meeting on Monday, February 2, 2026. It was a virtual meeting, and it started a bit late due to technical difficulties. The main purpose of the meeting was to consider 16 hardship requests that had been either carried over from a prior meeting or were submitted more recently. See the agenda meeting packet here.

What has gotten into the nonfat dry milk (NDM) market? NDM prices have been climbing since January, but the trajectory accelerated meaningfully this week. After taking a brief respite on Monday, the spot price for NDM rose every day between Tuesday and Friday, delivering an 18¢ increase, and qualifying as the commodity’s strongest week since May 2007. Prices settled at $1.64/lb. on Friday, which is not only the highest price since August 2022, but is also a comfortable 16.75¢

After rising unabashedly last week, the resolve of dairy markets was tested in recent days with mixed results. The CME was abuzz with activity as buyers and sellers gathered to test the limits and fortitude of the market’s newfound vigor. 

This weekend’s impending winter storm isn’t the only blanket of white settling across the U.S. Milk production continues to surge across the country with production rising to 19.568 billion pounds in December. This represents a 4.4% increase over the same month last year and means that when full year data was tallied, U.S. producers made 2.8% more milk in 2025 than during the prior year, after accounting for leap day. Most states saw production rise, but the biggest increase

The dairy markets have been swamped under a tidal wave of milk and are now fumbling around for the bottom. After catching a quick breath last week, spot nonfat dry milk (NDM) slipped back under the surface, falling a penny to $1.255. CME spot butter bounced back from multi-year lows, climbing 5.5ȼ to $1.355 per pound. And CME spot Cheddar blocks continued to sink, falling 2.5ȼ to $1.29. Meanwhile, whey remained buoyant. Spot whey powder rallied 3.5ȼ to 73.5ȼ.

The milk powder market is bulking up for the new year. It strengthened every day so far in 2026. The unexpected rally propelled CME spot nonfat dry milk to $1.265 per pound today, up 9ȼ for the week to its highest perch since mid-August. It’s unusual to see milk powder prices climb amid a rapid increase in U.S. milk output. But the dramatic expansion in U.S. dairy processing capacity has reduced the need for balancing. In October, U.S. milk powder output slumped to 148.9 mill

The ball has dropped, the confetti has settled, and the calendar page has officially flipped to 2026. But if you are searching for new year optimism, you may have to look beyond the dairy markets. The market tone remains decidedly bearish as plentiful milk supplies continue to outpace demand.

The U.S. dairy industry is drowning in butterfat. In October, America’s dairy herd cranked out 3.7% more milk than the year before, and cream production soared 5.9% year over year. On Monday, USDA will publish a fresh round of milk production data, and even greater gains are likely. It will be easy to beat November 2024 figures, when avian influenza dragged California milk output down 7.9% compared to November 2023. National average milk output was 0.3% lower than the year be

There has been a flurry of recent activity related to water issues. On December 2, the federal Bureau of Reclamation released “Action 5” which are updated rules that will govern pumping water from the delta.  The delta is the 1,150 square mile area located east of the Golden Gate Bridge where the great rivers that drain the Central Valley meet the salt water from the San Franciso Bay. This area is home to 500,000 acres of farmland and many sloughs and channels that contain im

Winter weather is making life on the farm a little harder in the Midwest, but a growing portion of the herd is now shielded from the elements in state-of-the-art housing. Meanwhile, pleasant conditions prevail in southern dairy areas, where cattle are comfortable in open lots. By all accounts, dairy parlors across the nation are full and so are milk tanks. Strong components ensure that dairy processors can run at full throttle.

The dairy markets are drowning in milk. Across the globe, dairy output outpaces year-ago volumes by wide margins. In New Zealand, October milk output topped the prior year by 2.8%, a substantial increase for the peak of the highly-seasonal Kiwi milk cycle. Nearly halfway through the 2025-26 season, New Zealand milk solids collections were 3.4% ahead of the 2024-25 pace, and all of the surplus will be exported. In China, after 15 months of contraction, milk production rebounde

Milk continues to gush across the United States. In the most recent Milk Production report, USDA pegged October production at 19.47 billion pounds, representing a year over year gain of 3.7%. Growth remains similar to recent months, though USDA did revise the September increase down from 4% to 3.8%. A larger herd continues to drive stronger output, but the tide may be shifting. For the first time this year dairy producers reduced cow numbers by 6,000 head during October, brin

Yesterday, at the 2025 Sustainable Agriculture Summit in Anaheim, Geoff Vanden Heuvel – Vice Chair of the Water Blueprint for the San Joaquin Valley and Director of Regulatory and Economic Affairs for the Milk Producers Council – delivered a compelling presentation on the future of California’s agricultural water supply. His talk, “Water Stewardship for Resilient Agriculture,” underscored both the historic roots and current fragility of the state’s water system, while calling

Market incentives have trumped biology and overcome the heifer shortage. Buoyed by several years of positive margins, dairy producers on both sides of the Atlantic have lowered cull rates, added cows, and amped up milk yields. In the U.S., dairy producers added 42,000 cows in August and another 40,000 head in September. Producers who had put off expansions when interest rates first climbed in 2022 eventually moved forward with their plans, and many are just now putting cattle

The commodity markets swung wildly back and forth this week, buffeted this way and that by politics and anxiety. While the U.S. economy continues to expand, growth is uneven. Lower-income consumers are struggling, and many middle-class Americans are watching their budgets more closely. They’re dining out less and seeking bargains when they do. Many shoppers are trading down to store brands or switching to discount retailers. This week, the Trump administration and a federal j

The State Court of Appeals issued two rulings this week on the Kings County Farm Bureau (KCFB) lawsuit against the State Water Resources Control Board (State Board). KCFB filed suit over actions the State Board took in April of 2024, which placed the Tulare Lake Subbasin in probation under the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). You can read the press release on the Appeals Court decision from KCFB here. You can read some news stories about the decisions here and h

Falling international prices spooked the U.S. milk powder market. At this week’s Global Dairy Trade (GDT) Pulse auction, skim milk powder (SMP) prices fell 0.7% from last week’s GDT event, dropping to a 13-month low of $2,530 per metric ton, equal to nonfat dry milk (NDM) at around $1.22 per pound. Whole milk powder prices slipped 0.9% to a one-year low. Manufacturers in Europe and Oceania are flush with milk, and dryers are...

Dairy markets both in the U.S. and across the globe continue to feel out the balance of supply and demand. Although the dramatic price decreases seen during the last few weeks have given way to more modest movements, the overall market tone remains bearish. Tuesday’s Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction, albeit glitchy, ultimately saw the GDT Price Index move down 1.4%, the fifth consecutive lower result. The decline in the index reflected lower prices across every product except

The dairy industry is the victim of its own success. Heavy milk output continues to weigh on milk and dairy product prices. USDA’s Dairy Market News reports that in California, milk production tops year-ago levels by a wide margin, “edging into double digits.” The eye-popping year- over-year increase can be partially explained by the onset of the devastating bird flu last year and the healthier herd today. That does not change the fact that the market has significantly more..

As the government shutdown stretches into its second week, the dairy industry continues to operate without access to key data. To this point, the main information gaps for the dairy sector include numbers for trade and dairy product output. However, if the shutdown persists, upcoming reports on milk production and inventories will also be missed, further obfuscating stakeholders’ understanding of market drivers.