Water Update

"How is it going with the water situation?” is a question I often get asked. So, here is my answer:

Reservoirs: Pretty good shape going into the new water year which started on October 1. Pine Flat on the Kings River looks lower than average, but that is misleading. The reservoir is right where it needs to be to capture the huge runoff that would result from a wet winter.

Precipitation prospects for the coming winter season are looking wet. So wet that the Governor issued an emergency order allowing expedited flood preparations. From state to local to private everyone needs to get ready to handle a big water year. What is not in the emergency order is the permission to divert flood flows to recharge without a permit. My strong belief is that an emergency order allowing recharge will come if the very wet winter actually happens.

On Policy, the update of the Bay Delta regulations by the State Water Resources Control Board is scheduled for a decision at the end of October. There is huge water user concern about the draft order issued by the State Board staff in August. Most of the discussions on this are happening behind closed doors. Getting this done has been a priority for Governor Newsom for at least 5 years. There was a deal called Healthy Rivers and Landscapes agreed and signed on to by the water users and the state and federal government back in 2022, but the draft order the State Board staff produced in August deviates from that deal. The federal Bureau of Reclamation issued a blistering letter of objection in September. Most other water users and state political leaders are expressing their objections privately hoping for changes by the actual State Board members that will salvage the deal. This is the culmination of years of work and compromise. Extreme environmentalists don’t like the deal because they want to take even more water away from human use. Will they have more or less political leverage in the next administration? It’s a coin flip on whether this gets over the finish line.

The proposed Sites Reservoir, a 1.5 million acre-foot off-stream storage lake to be built on the west side of the Sacramento Valley needs a water right permit to be able to divert water from the Sacramento River to fill it. They originally asked for a permit allowing 1.5 million acre-feet per year to be diverted under high flow conditions. The State Board staff offered up a permit for 950,000 acre-feet. The Sites supporters, including the Governor, objected and said they needed more to make the financial numbers to build the lake work. The State Board staff upped the proposed permit to 986,000 acre-feet per year. The Sites folks thought about it for a few weeks and now say that might work. We will see if it really works when the water users who have to write checks for hundreds of millions of dollars up front to build it actually agree. Maybe this happens.

On the SGMA front, for much of California, implementation is proceeding at a normal pace. This does not mean there is no discomfort. But compliance is tolerable and as long as we are not in a drought condition it doesn’t feel overwhelming. A number of additional GSAs are starting their pumping allocation programs. North Fork Kings, Merced, and East Turlock GSAs all come to mind.

Then there are the areas of concern. Kaweah subbasin was taken off of the probation list and has been making progress but needs to work out some internal issues that could potentially hinder their progress. The Tulare Lake Subbasin has the pressure of being in probation. The Mid Kings River GSA landowners just overwhelmingly passed their election to pay fees to support their GSA. They and the other Tulare Lake GSAs are working hard to try to come into compliance with SGMA and become sustainable. The trial on the Kings County Farm Bureau lawsuit against the State Board over the way the State Board put the Tulare Lake Subbasin under probation starts on October 6. For the moment, life continues.

Then there is the dumpster fire that is the Tule Subbasin. The challenges facing farmers in the Tule subbasin are significant. The gravity flow Friant Kern Canal (FKC) runs north to south through the eastern portion of the Tule Subbasin. Subsidence greatly interferes with the operation of the FKC and hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent to build an alternative 10 miles of canal to reestablish its carrying capacity after subsidence buckled a portion of the canal near Porterville. The State Board has put the Tule subbasin in probation and has informed them that they intend to impose a strict pumping moratorium in 2027 if the local GSAs don’t come up with an alternative that addresses the subsidence.

This is where the rubber meets the road on SGMA. For the most part, the allocation policies implemented in this area have been expensive and difficult, but the landowners have technically complied. What is being threatened now is essentially terminating farming particularly along the canal. SGMA gives GSAs and the State Board a lot of power, but our system of government also protects individual rights. According to the law, SGMA did not change water rights. SGMA is a relatively new law, and the extent of its reach has not really been tested in the courts. You can expect that if the moratorium is imposed by the State Board, landowners will fight back.

So far, both the State Board and the local GSAs have only been discussing limits and punitive measures to stop pumping – kind of a “stick only’ approach. What is needed if we are realistically going to solve the problem are some “carrots.” There needs to be some compensation offered to ease the pain of these farmers who did nothing illegal or unethical as they built their farms over the decades but now find themselves being driven out of business to protect a public asset.

The part of the Tule Subbasin that is not near the FKC is also under threat, also because of subsidence. There, deep pumping needs to be curbed but that will take time and a lot of money. There is a very substantial dairy industry in the Tule Subbasin. Most of the dairy farmland is flood irrigated and will need to be transitioned into more efficient irrigation methods. Deep well extraction needs to be reduced quickly. The transition would be greatly aided if USDA approves the five NRCS RCCP grant applications that have been submitted for this area.

Then there is the Colorado River. The new river operating rules imposed by the federal government kicked in this week. Nevada has already filed suit. There is no agreement between any of the parties on how to handle the very real water shortage on the Colorado. The stakes are huge for both water supply and power generation for major urban and agriculture areas in the Southwest U.S. and Mexico. No easy fix here.

So how is it going with the California water situation? To quote the opening line of Charles Dickens’ Tale of Two Cities: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” Or we could quote Annie: “The sun will come out tomorrow; bet your bottom dollar tomorrow there will be sun.” Or my favorite: Psalm 33:20-22. “We wait in hope for the Lord; he is our help and our shield. In him our hearts rejoice, for we trust in his holy name. May your unfailing love be with us Lord, even as we put our hope in you.” 

Geoff Vanden Heuvel

Director of Regulatory and Economic Affairs